The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020     

Chaofan LI  Riyu LU  Nick DUNSTONE  Adam A.SCAIFE  Philip E.BETT  Fei ZHENG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2055-2066

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of theWestern North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influenceof Tropical Sea Surface Temperature     

詹鸿宇  陈锐丹  蓝铭 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):57-70

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high (WNPSH) in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990. Correspondingly, the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP (WNPHA) in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990. The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change, which exhibit slow El Ni?o decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Ni?o to La Ni?a after 1990. The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences. Before 1990, the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation, respectively. Meanwhile, the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response, which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific. After 1990, the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation, respectively. Overall, the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990. Consequently, the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990, corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH. On the other hand, the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990, contributing to the change of the El Ni?o SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.  相似文献   

Heavy mineral composition and texture of the recently formed fluvial delta sediment of Lake Nasser/Nubia,Egypt and Sudan     

Omran E.Frihy  Essam A.Deabes  Abdelaleem A.Abudia  Ahamed Adawi 《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(1):70-82

Surficial sediment samples collected from the recently formed fluvial delta in Lake Nasser/Nubia (Egypt and Sudan) in conjunction with data on bottom current and depth soundings are examined to interpret hydraulic-sorting processes and transport/depositional patterns.The～500 km long northeastwardtrending lake,lies within Egypt and Sudan,is created as a result of the construction of the Aswan High Dam in 1964.The original grain-size distribution and heavy mineral compositions of these samples hel...  相似文献   

主余震作用下高强钢筋混凝土框架的易损性分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘平  王超  张健新 《世界地震工程》2022,38(1):020-27

为研究主余震作用下配置高强钢筋的RC框架结构的抗震性能,根据相同设计指标和"等强代换"的原则,设计了三榀六层四跨的钢筋混凝土框架,纵向受力钢筋的强度等级分别为HRB400、HRB500和HRB600。通过OpenSees平台进行有限元建模,将最大层间位移角作为结构损伤指标,反应地震作用的结构响应。选取15条地震加速度时程,通过重复法构造人工主余震序列并进行IDA分析,得到结构在不同强度的主余震序列作用下的地震易损性曲线。结果表明:主震PGA越大,余震的最大层间位移角越大,结构达到各极限状态的概率越高。对比配置不同钢筋强度的三榀框架的计算结果,可知"等强代换"原则下,相同主余震序列作用时,钢筋强度的提高对结构抗倒塌性能有不利影响,但影响有限。  相似文献   

内蒙古北山地区芨芨台子-小黄山蛇绿岩构造属性及与成矿关系: 来自阿民乌素地幔橄榄岩印证     

董洪凯 《地质与勘探》2022,58(4):767-777

阿民乌素地幔橄榄岩属芨芨台子-小黄山蛇绿岩带一部分,该构造带南北两侧地质体无明显差异,不具分界断裂的构造特征。本文对阿民乌素地幔橄榄岩与月牙山地幔橄榄岩进行岩石化学、地球化学对比分析,为芨芨台子-小黄山蛇绿岩构造属性提供新依据,并对阿民乌素蛇绿岩成矿潜力进行分析研究。笔者所在团队在地幔橄榄岩上部的辉长岩中获得LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素年龄值为462.5±3.2 Ma,属中奥陶世。其上发育奥陶纪-志留纪公婆泉组岛弧拉斑玄武岩。该期地幔橄榄岩轻重稀土之比LR/HR＝1.63~3.68, (La/Sm)N＝1.70~6.92,(Gd/Yb)N＝0.36~0.52,表明岩石轻稀土略富集,稀土配分曲线呈不规则“U”型,估算其为原始地幔橄榄岩经过10%~20%部分熔融的残留物。原始地幔标准化蛛网图富集高场强元素U、Zr、Hf、Yb和大离子亲石元素Rb、Sr,亏损高场强元素Nb、Ti和大离子亲石元素Ba。与月牙山地幔橄榄岩标准化蛛网图对比,最大区别在于阿民乌素地幔橄榄岩明显亏损高场强元素Ti。初步研究认为阿民乌素地幔橄榄岩属SSZ型、高压型蛇绿岩,是岛弧裂谷的产物。该橄榄岩具有形成大型铬铁矿的成矿构造背景,是寻找蛇绿岩型铬铁矿的有利部位。  相似文献   

●●以下文章网络预出版（在线出版）于2022年12月20日，预计刊于《地质论评》2023年第69卷第1期(2023年1月15日发行纸质版）或2023年第69卷第2期（2023年3月15日发行纸质版）     

朱炜  张艳  韩润生  王磊  佘敏  魏平堂 《地质论评》2022,68(6):2022112011-2022112012

元素富集机制的研究是重现成矿过程和查明成矿机制的基础,有助于深化对矿床的认识,为找矿提供理论依据。本文总结了近年来关于铅锌元素的迁移与沉淀机制的研究及其应用,包括3种铅锌迁移沉淀模式,4种含铅锌流体驱动模式,铅锌的迁移形式及其沉淀机制;同时简述了我国高温高压实验的发展历程以及4种高温高压模拟实验方法。重点介绍了4种高温高压实验模拟方法及其研究现状：① 高压釜实验;② 热液金刚石压腔—激光拉曼实验;③ 熔融毛细硅管—激光拉曼实验;④ 计算机模拟实验。从封闭—平衡—静止到（半）开放—非平衡—流动、淬火分析到原位观察,应是今后高温高压实验的发展方向。以地质特征为基础,采用高温高压成岩成矿模拟实验结合计算机模拟,精细刻画成矿过程并揭示元素富集机制不仅是解决实际地质问题的有效手段,更是很长一段时间内要为之努力的方向。  相似文献   

地下水机器学习方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

齐永强  李文鹏  郑跃军  李慧  王成见 《水文地质工程地质》2022,49(1):1-11

随着我国地下水监测工作的高速发展,高频率高密度水位监测数据的出现催生了对其进行深入信息挖掘的需求。在传统地下水模型研究中,地下水水位监测值常位于模型构建过程的下游,当水位监测的时空密度逐渐增大时,新增信息无法有效传导至模型的规划阶段并指导概念模型的修订。文章提出了一种地下水系统补排边界的识别方法,在不建立地下水数值模型的前提下,以监测井空间位置为节点,按照德劳内原则建立三角网格。在此网格系统中,首先定义一个水力梯度变换函数gradF,以求取网格中任意位置的水力梯度;借鉴机器学习领域的优化算法,使用水力梯度场驱动含水层中随机分布质点的运行轨迹,并以此推断和识别区域内地下水补给和排泄边界。在环境地学计算平台EnviFusion-CGS中实现,并构建了详细工作流程。以山东省青岛市大沽河中下游含水层为示范区,对含水系统的补给区和排泄区的空间分布及其动态变化进行了分析,取得了良好效果。本研究为构建和修订已有含水层概念模型提供了新思路。  相似文献   

玄武岩纤维堵漏体系在高海拔非开挖钻进中的应用研究          下载免费PDF全文

周生伟  孙平贺  苏卫锋  周梦迪  夏余宏烨  周明明  左雷彬  王李昌 《探矿工程》2022,49(3):139-145

高海拔地区实施非开挖水平定向钻进时,裂隙发育地层的泥浆漏失不仅会影响泥浆的有效循环,还会形成大量的岩屑床,导致钻具过度磨损、摩阻异常增大、有效孔径减小等问题。针对西藏某地钻遇花岗岩裂隙,采用近景摄影测量技术对其进行量化表征,得到该区裂隙地层的缝宽<4 mm;提出采用玄武岩纤维作为裂隙封堵主剂,并建立随钻玄武岩纤维堵漏配方体系,实验结果表明：采用3、6和9 mm多级组合的玄武岩纤维堵漏效果最好,3 mm纤维复合惰性材料形成骨架结构,6和9 mm纤维可发挥一定强度的“加筋”作用。现场随钻实验结果表明：采用玄武岩纤维堵漏后,泥浆中固相含量下降幅度减少了13.14%,有效保障了长距离裂隙山体的有效、绿色、安全钻进。  相似文献   

液动潜孔锤用于干热岩钻进的优化与试验          下载免费PDF全文

王跃伟  李宽  张恒春  齐力强  杨泽英  薛倩冰  贾明浩 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):36-41

我国目前能源结构对化石燃料依赖度过高,在全球能源转型的大环境下,作为一种新型清洁能源,干热岩具有储量巨大、资源丰富、分布广泛等优势。针对干热岩勘探开发中高温硬岩钻进的技术难点,对YZX178型液动潜孔锤进行了结构优化,并在某干热岩井中进行了试验应用。试验结果证实了YZX178型液动潜孔锤用于干热岩等坚硬地层进行冲击回转钻进的可行性和高效性,获得了与螺杆钻具接近的机械钻速,且具有节能环保、安全性高、维护方便、节约成本、高温适应性强等优势,但仍需进一步解决其工作寿命与牙轮钻头相匹配的问题。  相似文献   

山西干热岩GR1井高温固井技术研究与实践          下载免费PDF全文

郤一臻  赵福金  荆京  祁国华  张勃 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):42-47

固井质量对干热岩后期开发利用具有重要意义。针对山西大同盆地干热岩勘查井GR1井温度高、高温固井水泥浆技术体系不完善等问题,通过研究勘查区地质特征,提出了高温固井水泥浆技术体系开发思路。研究表明：干热岩高温固井水泥浆水胶比控制为0.45,优选添加剂高温降失水剂CG82L、高温缓凝剂H40L、高温稳定剂CF40L、消泡剂GX-1、硅粉及HV-PAC,形成一套适用于山西干热岩井的高温固井水泥浆技术体系。该水泥浆体系在GR1井成功应用,现场固井质量良好,研究成果为今后同类型高温固井工作提供了宝贵经验和技术支撑。  相似文献